My New Blog

Just when things could be quieting down, the August jobs report is just around the corner. This number is always very significant, but it becomes even more important this month because it represents data mid-way through the third quarter. With many economists counting on a rebound for the economy in the second half of the year, this is a reading which is solidly within the year's second half. The number is also very important because it comes right after a period in which the markets are experiencing major turbulence. If the number is poor, does this mean the markets have already taken this disappointment into account? If the number is strong, could the markets rally? It would not be 2011 if we did not have an intervening event that could obscure the data. This month we had the strike at Verizon which could contribute to weakness, even though tens of thousands of workers have returned to work. Just in time to keep the phones running as hurricane Irene strikes.

The events in Libya also bear watching. It is not just potential ramping up of oil production. It is said that much of Libya's production may take years to restart. It is the fact that Libya represents another domino. Not only will the world be watching as the country struggles to unite under a Democracy, the world will be watching the next domino, which right now is Syria. In the long run, democracies and capitalism in this region have the potential to provide more stability. In the short-run, there is the potential for more uncertainty with regard to oil production and threats from extremists. Here is the good news. As Libyan rebels gained control of the country, our focus actually left the European Debt Crisis for a few days.