My New Blog

So where is the positive news going to come from? For one, the disasters we have endured will actually serve as a spark as this quarter comes to a close and the next quarter begins. We are already getting reports that the real estate market is hot in the flood and tornado ravaged areas as housing shortages have taken hold. There will be a significant rise in construction as complete areas will need to be rebuilt. Likewise, across the world in Japan, factory output will continue to increase incrementally. In essence, the temporary factors that contributed the soft patch will turn into positive contributions in the rebound. Of course, there is hope we will have a respite from calamities for now as the world has had its share. Not all news will be positive in a rebound. For one, oil prices and rates are likely to increase. We saw this earlier last week when the stock market finally bounced up after six weeks of declines. Bounces in down markets are not unusual, however, it is likely that stocks, oil and rates will all reverse their downtrends if the soft patch ends. In this regard, we were hoping oil prices would have drifted further downward during this soft-patch. While the move from over $110 to under $100 per barrel was significant, oil is still much higher than it was a year ago. Lower oil prices would be another gift to help move the economy out of this soft patch. Where is Jed Clampett when you need him?